A popular Cold War theory known as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) essentially means that countries armed with nuclear weapons will not use them because of mutual destruction.
The theory guided many U.
S.
strategic decisions against the Russians and as MAD became an assumption in decision-making, national security analysts focused on possible first strike capabilities that would paralyze a USSR response.
Yes, we had proxy wars and fought in the shadows, but nukes were off limits.
Well, the Cold War is over and other countries besides the Russians are working furiously to obtain or have already obtained nukes.
Will MAD hold true in this new age? To find the answer let us first look to South Asia and the India-Pakistan situation.
India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons, short and medium range missiles, which is enough for either to eliminate the other.
Yet despite the frequent border skirmishes and fighting, they have not authorized the use of nuclear weapons.
A professor I had at Georgetown referred to this as "dirty stability" because despite the fighting, he argued, escalation will cease before nukes are used.
It was my cold warrior professor's proof that MAD theory is still applicable today.
Now I agree MAD has proven accurate so far, but lately I find myself doubting the strength of the theory.
MAD is based on the assumption that leaders controlling the authorization of nuclear force are rational actors.
So would the theory apply to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran? Would it have applied to Hitler? Are these people rational actors? I don't believe they are rational though, just as I don't believe Saddam or his son were.
Does it matter, rational or not? Realist theorist Kenneth Waltz said that wars are the result of miscalculation.
Saddam admitted that he miscalulated the odds of a U.
S.
invasion of Iraq.
So, if Waltz is right then can we be certain that Iran, North Korea, or any country for that matter, won't "push the button" if given limited options? I don't claim to know for sure, but what I do know is that I don't have enough faith in MAD theory to test it against a nuclear Iran.
The U.
S.
needs to find a way using diplomacy or force, to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes.
Because once they have them, we can't just go in there.