Conclusion
It is unlikely that most HIV infections could be identified during the high viraemic stage 1 of infection. If infections are identified at a rate of 0.9/year beginning in stage 2, and ART is initiated immediately after detection, our results indicate that HIV incidence would fall as a result of ART. However, this comes at a cost. Our results still indicate rising prevalence as those infected live longer. The combined effect of increased risky sexual behaviour and longer life expectancy while infected would increase HIV prevalence dramatically. Care providers should be prepared for a higher than previously suggested number of people who are likely to need treatment.